Engineer Research and Development Center - Environmental Laboratory

Risk and Decision Science Team

Wildfires

DESCRIPTION

The United States Army Corps of Engineers water management is complicated by the presence of burn scars in the drainage basins that feed reservoirs, due to the changes in hydrology and geological flow risk that burn scars produce. The extent that these effects these are influenced by predictable atmospheric rivers is needed to better understand and develop decision support for West coast multi-hazards, especially those related to post-fire hydrology. Integrating hydrologic, atmospheric, and social sciences, this effort works towards a USACE decision support tool related to reservoir operations and emergency management. This project investigates statistical relationships of antecedent conditions using collected data sets to understand hydrologic watershed changes for pre- and post-fire conditions. (i.e., reservoir inflow distributions). Further, this work generates empirical models that consider uncertainty and predictability. Better forecasting of flood-inducing atmospheric river conditions related to burn hydrology will help emergency management prepare for potential natural hazards, which can save lives and reduce resource demands and associated costs, especially in infrastructure dense regions that are vulnerable to post-fire flood events. Better forecasting of fire-related hydrology changes will improve risk-informed decision making for water managers.


Problem

USACE water management is complicated by the presence of burn scars in the drainage basins that feed reservoirs, due to the changes in hydrology and geological flow risk that burn scars produce. These extent that these effects these are influenced by predictable atmospheric rivers is needed to better understand West coast multi-hazards, especially those related to post-fire hydrology and will help the USACE in decision support related to reservoir operations and emergency management.

Diagram with color field ovals. On the left is a red oval with wite text: Wildland Fire Response, beneath reads: Suppression, Monitored burns, Point protection. An arrrow goes right from this first oval to another red oval with text: Wildland Fire Recovery. Beneath this is some free text blocks: Emergency stabilization, Long-term recovery and restoration, and * May want to focus here? Under these is a green oval reading: Post-Fire Precipitation Response. Beneath is text reading: Evacuations, Reservoir/basin operations, Floodplain Management, Sediment Management. An arrow goes right from this green oval to another green oval with text: Post-Fire Precipitation Recovery. Under this is text: Debris removal, Infrastructure restoration, Ecosystem restoration. The bottom left of the diagram reads TIME with a right arrow. The upper right corner has a brown field with text reading: Which federal agencies are involved?, What are their objectives?, Who are they coordinating with?, What information are they using?

Solution

Investigate statistical relationships of antecedent conditions using collected data sets to see how watershed hydrology pre- and post-fire changes—ex: reservoir inflow distributions. Analyze uncertainty and predictability. Generate empirical models.


Impact

Better forecasting of flood-causing AR conditions related to burn hydrology will help emergency management prepare for potential natural hazards & disasters (saving lives and $, especially given infrastructure density in AR affected regions). Better forecasting of fire-related hydrology changes will help water managers make better decisions and improve flood risk management (saving $ and potentially lives).